current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.2825 True
delta_h2 4.0295 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 1.011 True
price 0.8363 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.2825 True
delta_h2 4.0295 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 1.011 True
price 0.8363 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.1022855 0.0011120376823730137
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.0035704243652960677
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.043744733879208283
grad2 1.0278653443479653 0.029202709708391558
grad3 1.0697815019489212 0.02576324389529853
grad4 1.0847290395285745 0.02521107182723259
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.00538635207333559
f =  77.66402014360254 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.02953504  1.01102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.09451385777284434
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.982217422783962
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.5038909234815
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0217987248963132
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0344732426303749
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0418153977570777
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8222745315392446
f =  133.54023063896804 , pars =  [-1.182523    4.02953504  1.01102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.09118279318626837
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9822174198602421
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.5155102729799148
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0209149615166973
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0330510372109902
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0398212263027071
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.818743640809716
f =  252.62975782620353 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.12953504  1.01102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.08562959128484808
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9839096573160184
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48592895860781926
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0195408578655405
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0324906074373752
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0404565342607102
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8225574835840643
f =  859.0913910044269 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.02953504  1.11102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.08270450041049597
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9822175775368015
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.5637993418779268
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0204151769954735
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0315665612509937
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0364088652332144
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.9515772764781004
f =  28.730597559834393 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.02953504  1.01102276  0.93630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10519882031446398
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9822174164045234
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4559952532398978
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.02267794700583
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0385180332414186
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0486688812381058
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8191004260633895
f =  37.80466249938807 , pars =  [-1.382523    4.02953504  1.01102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.09777306912473686
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9822174229888077
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.46872101655203496
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.021481370462218
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0364476697081024
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0463958833538518
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8238442207419782
f =  26.54636786161131 , pars =  [-1.282523    3.92953504  1.01102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1041216601430104
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9803472071563232
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4850095156851592
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.023389805805454
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0393106985345448
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0492198349227426
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8193907926063039
f =  681.3199310410141 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.02953504  0.91102276  0.83630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10961367171775444
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.982217403856291
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4062463118829496
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0245183545254275
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0437124870289611
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0572350811436717
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.6952728465391883
f =  326.7240504137663 , pars =  [-1.282523    4.02953504  1.01102276  0.73630109]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.08335665149707948
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9822174225246344
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.5383582105457567
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.020309681827819
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0317434322877508
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0376431006871547
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8219540370980091
f =  160.91172115113736 , pars =  [-1.36067916  3.93722005  1.00321969  0.897715  ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.115041089993423
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9804976578068356
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.45257503459684995
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0243668220385382
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0419464287733082
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0535761903577683
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8093367530985728
f =  33.157606253846836 , pars =  [-1.23683797  3.91898627  1.00527143  0.85268778]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10495181039240913
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9801388011637057
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.5102725354194231
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0229865932524373
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.036583196201378
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0446272893704334
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8217922943788544
f =  34.16359711116923 , pars =  [-1.28285425  3.91917292  1.00853814  0.84282744]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1058219630904604
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.980142503307151
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4885310702299205
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0231621607362777
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0389269728683848
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0487503583935194
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8197467113440673
f =  24.84308066933602 , pars =  [-1.29331768  3.95140293  1.00680045  0.83277366]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10153750437024311
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.980772309857612
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4926410555927748
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.02211122674166
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.037105829102009
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0464154161956307
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8220257853805806
f =  28.898215417234976 , pars =  [-1.29375144  3.93282309  1.0084277   0.81613174]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1013720459457875
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9804117237182807
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.516101282574044
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0227870948822226
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0360729024188955
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0437349671466423
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8232406070746913
f =  25.082803604522965 , pars =  [-1.29026509  3.95647298  1.01289491  0.82749789]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10037847194132654
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808695502103805
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.484596663337878
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0225808980995001
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.037808041420617
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.04749907468227
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8235441097854389
f =  23.139105461629114 , pars =  [-1.289124    3.95668584  1.01018012  0.83933732]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10168230367672354
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808736217856248
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48490373540954734
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222263348244058
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0373391252273247
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0470428858172174
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8224432301155504
f =  24.939996409990286 , pars =  [-1.28424194  3.96098918  1.0100789   0.84090117]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10099912529290674
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9809557534511829
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4927256431914305
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0221196695075343
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.036914136029142
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0461010533448112
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8241967911650036
f =  21.737994119064005 , pars =  [-1.29612805  3.95386878  1.00893478  0.845776  ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10286686115876256
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808196668315338
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4822548578629877
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222040985031131
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0373933493347842
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0472049070653318
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8242793623890056
f =  22.496011574491746 , pars =  [-1.30491449  3.95693299  1.0117112   0.84338837]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10275478992128888
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808783465482378
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4827153503783709
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.02272840190293
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.038310906220529
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.048087683175702
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8223433095202238
f =  27.49364705805209 , pars =  [-1.28818233  3.95129715  1.00702236  0.85093302]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10390980101698652
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9807702725264154
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4854913171467702
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0226048978834077
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.038010780749313
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.047642921628779
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8184585960620562
f =  26.36578174919343 , pars =  [-1.30268771  3.94663331  1.01036507  0.84738005]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10438436701706678
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9806803800431596
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4809855467564896
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0230518863456557
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0388884502235136
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0488512784602002
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8204834033356553
f =  23.02564618857215 , pars =  [-1.29853515  3.96339296  1.01002553  0.8472946 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1023079411926894
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9810014734767482
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48430125089271175
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0225937702145271
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0379666758304815
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0475371517533016
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8219546070648018
f =  33.62567188572484 , pars =  [-1.30336459  3.95773819  1.00345742  0.84414544]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1038615198924594
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808937330950688
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4820918077282551
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022610837154309
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0381336200733613
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.04792111914671
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.811928236604859
f =  22.387902615509255 , pars =  [-1.29574458  3.95419045  1.01386983  0.8451477 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10286145374118737
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808258316294813
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48257504316199595
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.02307123586507
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0387624331968701
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0484917697773934
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8223934571015392
f =  25.875900728645522 , pars =  [-1.29610474  3.95309397  1.00877175  0.84480903]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10332588490774801
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.98080479334745
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4848907962968926
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0227698491201689
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.038250368076635
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0479001896972244
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8187604248248216
f =  25.743737156783762 , pars =  [-1.29661771  3.95490776  1.00948475  0.84792734]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10333973250951854
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808395796133551
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48905453647288427
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0225394066757014
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0376451178082375
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.047072086877744
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8201937382810591
f =  22.355921229691916 , pars =  [-1.29680181  3.9543696   1.00923067  0.84532027]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10254436458262672
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808292728033646
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4886561261144063
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222773969126586
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0373977055718715
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0467484787221528
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8250726611967975
f =  22.75518108317573 , pars =  [-1.29548184  3.95460585  1.0087425   0.84582257]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10230146555591704
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.980833798259338
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4926353244192219
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0219183323542034
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0368036843211863
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0460832998146599
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.826322629978598
f =  24.191517873069596 , pars =  [-1.29532508  3.9535096   1.00904944  0.84623761]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10315755725272797
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808127725423033
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48540268266924586
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022455455847883
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0378330412591537
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0475081477140862
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8210336176908526
f =  26.816458500846554 , pars =  [-1.29660596  3.9538279   1.00813545  0.84613793]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1035198539778596
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808188760391701
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4831852560452035
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0228980254124338
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0384642047596642
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0481630083833904
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8176617345133856
f =  25.3859032976517 , pars =  [-1.29675107  3.95317443  1.00920934  0.84600911]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10313319115618033
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808063405832919
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4919331887691068
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022248936735322
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0371288803585774
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0464232094455634
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8211658017781063
f =  22.391294324903672 , pars =  [-1.29597091  3.95421792  1.00985531  0.84569827]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1027159795614726
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808263607415896
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48673192495952877
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0223689917702543
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0376989832297379
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0473260234784034
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8241106394843369
f =  22.803472225688807 , pars =  [-1.29632909  3.95430529  1.00913856  0.84662894]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1027093742565365
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808280372328996
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4895986072079348
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222639804274976
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0374150664191364
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0468644017114723
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8245015072317848
f =  22.692268740751913 , pars =  [-1.29610664  3.95427596  1.0091657   0.84558354]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10255598333276808
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808274750970561
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4898077166856737
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222341436004552
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0373444194540011
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0467520193249675
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8247137906554528
f =  22.548720002048594 , pars =  [-1.29611074  3.9542719   1.00916409  0.84558995]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10248767025477709
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808273991570498
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.49031170657754186
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.021868317222834
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0364856162463205
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0459305814784197
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8258900681647608
f =  27.10666959587452 , pars =  [-1.29610205  3.95380992  1.00891501  0.84567068]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10356181006604227
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808185315652171
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4818896018071319
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0230915392056479
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0387964757068355
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0485915675935549
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8170927636376379
f =  23.835024774680726 , pars =  [-1.29619379  3.95398227  1.00896933  0.84598601]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10267572123652105
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808218431155066
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.49402152443943714
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0220351388347142
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.036781514770893
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0459952532249372
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8242047720296928
f =  24.292714787227812 , pars =  [-1.29616513  3.95380574  1.00900197  0.8457877 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1030494032441358
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808184538835076
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4866809037141679
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0225453369465394
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0378568016887482
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0473944405301523
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8210126605316567
f =  24.220400437716837 , pars =  [-1.29611832  3.95393609  1.00886992  0.84581019]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10310699977870794
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808209538494821
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48545881284948966
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0224418009697056
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0378097849914545
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.04747786742826
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8209164356087453
f =  24.066279232247854 , pars =  [-1.29604112  3.95384012  1.00894635  0.84581457]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10309676825061584
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808191132927964
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4850701757606702
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022538577514429
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0379654194179098
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0476640798004402
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8209725237459434
f =  23.57147996905425 , pars =  [-1.29616409  3.95393048  1.00900395  0.8457655 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10306981998840156
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808208477282573
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48413849125652525
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022625604729891
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.03812368691787
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.04785026617087
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8214069589208067
f =  23.768165007359215 , pars =  [-1.29622179  3.9538839   1.00892011  0.84574826]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10316087258402219
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808199530940641
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48231915009463333
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0224187218940999
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0376806344592542
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0475299354463996
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8209325240912001
f =  23.904283126298633 , pars =  [-1.29616395  3.95382498  1.00888685  0.84584304]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10311334203737231
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.980818822727362
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.48409141106097203
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0226361880998764
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0381471715734618
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.047891343433762
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8209336846056777
f =  21.73719476631778 , pars =  [-1.2961559   3.95390492  1.00896079  0.8458611 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.1028234708302669
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808203599587743
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4826490624119764
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.022197513375548
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0374091875276452
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0473354772957508
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8243048280460153
f =  24.38834249034565 , pars =  [-1.29612614  3.95389001  1.00896432  0.84581467]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.1022855 0.10325814183230135
trans_fromgood 0.97412980176419 0.9808200709313551
trans_frombad 0.3249539275699157 0.4837686744297048
grad2 1.0278653443479653 1.0222980965909403
grad3 1.0697815019489212 1.0373316508012818
grad4 1.0847290395285745 1.0471538389281365
tfp 0.8301558557492001 0.8206911900269405
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.097183  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.304140  False       NaN
psi       0.168902  False       NaN
delta_h1 -1.296156   True  0.097648
delta_h2  3.953905   True  0.030714
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       1.008961   True  0.098572
price     0.846861   True  0.011738
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
